Mintel Identifies Recession-Proof Food and Drink Markets in US

Market research firm Mintel has reviewed and re-forecasted its research reports from the past two years to identify the US food and drink markets which are doing better in recession.

“Over the past year, we’ve seen people trying to save money on food by either dining out less, cutting supermarket bills, or both,” said Bill Patterson, senior analyst at Mintel.

“More people cook at home now, but they still want healthy, convenient, tasty food and drink for their dollar. As consumers spend less and stay in more, certain food markets are benefiting. These recession-proof, or rather recession-fueled, industries are destined to do well throughout the economic downturn, but it will be interesting to track their sales after the nation recovers.”

Bread – The core of basic American eating, from breakfast bagels to lunchtime sandwiches to dinner rolls, Mintel sees the bread market faring the recession quite well. Predicted to grow organically by 2.1% in 2008, Mintel’s latest figures show the bread market has grown 7%. Mintel now predicts higher growth for bread through to 2013.

Sweet spreads – “Brown bag lunches are back,” said Patterson. America’s quintessential lunch—the PB&J—is doing great during recessionary times. A healthy, cheap source of protein, peanut butter will drive sweet spread sales to increase 26% from 2008-2013, up substantially from Mintel’s initial prediction of 12%.

Frozen meals – Convenient, available in family-sized servings, filling and often inexpensive, frozen meals will undoubtedly benefit from the recession. Mintel expects a total sales increase of 4.5% in 2008, a jump from its original -0.3% expectation.

Side dishes – More people are cooking at home, but small conveniences like ready-prepared side dishes aren’t out of the question for many families. Mintel only expected the side dish market to grow 2.3% in 2008, but it grew more than 5%, driven by increased sales of basic comfort foods such as mac and cheese.

Coffee – The $4 latte is finally going out of fashion. More adults are making their coffee at home, causing the retail coffee market to grow 6% in 2008, a substantial jump from Mintel’s original forecast of 2.4%. Mintel expects this market to enjoy continued success in the future, though recent, less expensive coffee drink launches from Dunkin Donuts and McDonald’s will compete with at-home coffee sales.

Patterson said these recession-proof food and drink markets have things in common. These products often fall into the comfort/simple food categories and can be purchased at a general supermarket for a relatively low price. Then at home, they can be prepared and enjoyed with relative ease.