Mintel Tips a Third of UK Consumer Markets to Grow in 2009

Eggs, home beauty treatments and online clothes shopping are among the sectors tipped by Mintel to enjoy growth in 2009.

Despite tough market conditions the research company reveals over a third (37%) of over 400 sectors it monitors are forecast to grow this year.

The findings come as part of Mintel’s re-forecasting project, which takes into account the dramatic change in consumers’ expectations, attitudes and beliefs over the past six months.

As the recession continues to impact on most sectors of the UK economy, Mintel has re-forecast its reports to determine how sectors are faring in these challenging economic times.

Mortgage lending stablilisation

Mintel forecasts suggest that over the course of 2009, gross new mortgage lending should only fall by over 6% – while a significant drop, it represents a stabilisation after the sharp falls seen in 2008. While term insurance will see a predicted 12% drop, Mintel consumer research suggests many view both home and motor insurance as too important to scrimp on.

Eggs crack market

As consumers seek to economise their eating habits, Mintel predicts eggs to go up 15% in value in 2009 due to their relatively cheap price, further awareness about their health benefits and as consumers seek to make meals from scratch to save money. It is the only food market to see double-digit growth forecast for 2009 and will also benefit from the phasing out of caged hens for more expensive free range and organic options.

Eggs: tipped to grow

Re-forecasting also reveals a reinvigorated affinity for Italian food as this quick and convenient food sector is also predicted to grow in 2009. However, a ‘treating’ culture is forecast to continue, with chocolate sales predicted to rise 7% in 2009 as a low cost way to soothe consumers as a comforting purchase.

Shoppers move online

Mintel forecasts online fashion to be the biggest winner of all segments analysed; set to grow 23% in 2009. However the market is expected to be less rosy for womenswear (down 2.3%) and menswear (down 1.2%) in general as consumers seek to economise.

Designer clothing (down 3%) and the jeans market (down 2.4%) will also suffer as consumers buy less or switch to replacement rather than desirable purchases.

Richard Perks, director of retail research at Mintel said: “These figures confirm that affordability will take precedence over lifestyle in 2009 as we further feel the impact of the current economic climate. While the trend of trading down will have a negative effect for many consumer sectors, other sectors are benefiting as British consumers change direction and adapt their lifestyle choices accordingly.”

Change in leisure habits

Brits are also set to change their leisure habits as the recession bites. Mintel forecasts show expensive drinks and entry fees could drive the nightclub sector down 4% in volume and family favourite theme parks down 4% – due in large part to their key audience being hardest hit by recession. However, sectors set to benefit from this change in focus include public leisure centres, as consumers switch from higher priced gym memberships; cinemas, as affordable escapism; and football. Mintel’s research shows that fans’ deep rooted loyalty will ride through any threat presented by the recession as the football industry is set for a predicted 1.6% rise in 2009.

Mobiles capture digital camera market

Mintel predicts digital cameras to be the technological sector most affected by the recession, falling 17% in value – due in part to necessitated discounting by retailers, a saturated market and the ongoing development of ever developing camera phones providing an all-in-one gadget. Mintel also predicts the television market to fall by 3% between 2008 and 2009 as a result of budgets reducing for such items as consumers trade down.

Beauty moves indoors

Consumers are also set to make changes when it comes to the beauty sector with a shift from in-salon treatments to purchasing more affordable at-home salon alternatives, predicts Mintel. However, less frequent purchase items such as optical goods and electrical haircare are set to suffer as consumers economise and reduce the frequency of purchase.